Jul 20·edited Jul 21Liked by Demren Sinik

Thank you for sharing these thoughts!

More questions founders can ask:

1) If incumbent develops a similar porduct to mine, will it hurt it? (For example, google didn't release ChatGPT like product before being forced to)

2) Are there any beachheads sub-markets that are important yet hard for incumbents to focus on?

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Aug 8Liked by Demren Sinik

Thank you for a thoughtful article! I think we are looking at a classic case when reality will turn an “OR” (A or B) into an “AND” (A and B). Yes, AI brings new capabilities within the boundaries of organizations. On the other hand, there is always an opportunity cost and the fact that building something may be far outside the organization’s core competencies.

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Impeccably well-written post but I take a different conclusion from it. In aggregate, this is all probably a threat to VCs more than fouders (or more accurately, VCs and founders with venture scale ambitions) since your definition of software 3.0 wildly expands the aperture of who can become a SaaS founder and how fast they can do it.

The threat of incumbency/competition in this mold is most prescient for essentially a B2B SaaS company following the last decade's venture path. I expect that market to decline (and yes, prob fewer generational SaaS businesses) but for a golden age of 1-3 man, bootstrapped tools that rocket to six figures in ARR to emerge, aided by the wave of AI but less held back by the headwinds you mention.

From there, all kinds of fascinating ways the capital structure of software investing could radically shift-- anyone's guess is as good as mine

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